Albion Analytics: Our top record against the 'big six'

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Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2025-02-19T06:00+00:00

Kaoru Mitoma scored a stunning goal against Chelsea on Friday night. 📷 by Simon Roe.

Content but not satisfied was the right way to describe Fabian Hurzeler on Friday evening.

He had just seen his Brighton side beat Chelsea 3-0 - a second win over them in six days after a 2-1 FA Cup victory at the Amex.

“I wouldn’t say complete,” he said when asked to assess the performance afterwards.

“We suffered a little bit in the first-half. After we scored, we got a little bit too passive, especially in the low block, we didn’t find the right trigger to go in the high press. We changed it in the second-half, and we defended, overall, quite good, and that was the key today."

It is that obsession over details and performance levels which has seen Brighton raise their game against the league’s top opposition this season.

In 11 fixtures across all competitions this season against the traditional ‘Big Six’ — Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City — Brighton have six wins, two draws and only three defeats. Only Newcastle (7 wins from 11 matches) have beaten those sides more.

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Kaoru Mitoma's goal against Chelsea was something special. Here is a view of it as seen through the lenses of our club photographers.

Isolate that to just the Premier League and Brighton have the most points (17) and wins (5) versus ‘Big Six’ opponents. Earlier this season, Hurzeler became the first Brighton head coach to record a league double over Manchester United — Brighton beat them both times in 2022/23, once under Graham Potter and then under Roberto De Zerbi.

There have also been league doubles over Arsenal (2019/20) and Chelsea (2022/23), which makes this campaign the second time Albion have beaten Chelsea more than once in the same campaign.

Opposition head coaches rarely give Hurzeler’s side much credit after losing to them. Ruben Amorim said it was “maybe the worst” United side ever when Brighton won 3-1 at Old Trafford.

That day, United outshot Brighton but the Albion had more big chances (four vs one) and hit the target with half their efforts (3/6) whereas United only tested Bart Verbruggen with one of their ten shots, which was a Bruno Fernandes penalty.

Likewise, Enzo Maresca and Ange Postecoglou described Chelsea and Tottenham’s league defeats at the Amex as their worst in charge at the respective clubs. Brighton were the first team to stop Chelsea registering a shot on target in a Premier League game since Manchester City in September 2021.

Hurzeler’s side only had 31% possession but outperformed Chelsea for shots (13 vs eight), big chances (five vs one) and committed fewer fouls (12 vs 15). Similarly, against Tottenham, Brighton produced more big chances (four vs one), more shots on target (four vs three) and a superior cross completion (33% compared to 5%).

Albion were 2-0 down at half-time that afternoon, scoring three times in 18 second-half minutes to win. There was a similar comeback at home to Manchester City in November, with two goals in five minutes to take all three points after City scored first. Of the five occasions that Brighton have scored twice within 15 minutes, four have been against ‘Big Six’ sides.

There is work to do in creating and using momentum against weaker opposition, but Brighton are more than capable of raising their game when needed.

After all, they have earned eight of their 17 points against ‘Big Six’ teams from losing positions, metrics which are both the most in the division. Part of that owes to their depth up-front.

Joao Pedro and Yankuba Minteh have four goals each against those opponents, Georginio Rutter has three, Kaoru Mitoma and Danny Welbeck two apiece, plus one from Matt O’Riley and Ferdi Kadioglu.

As per an article in The Athletic last week, Hurzeler has made the joint third-most in-game formation tweaks (12) this campaign, and he’s used the most subs (120) too. Considering Brighton substitutes have been involved in 11 goals, the fourth-most in the league, those tweaks have had the necessary impact.

Really, Hurzeler is continuing a trend of Brighton being the ‘best of the rest’. Since 2018/19, they have 23 wins, 14 draws and 44 defeats in 81 Premier League matches against ‘Big Six’ teams.

It is the most points (83) and wins any team from outside that group has versus those opponents. In that time, Brighton are Premier League ever-presents along with Wolves, West Ham, Crystal Palace, Everton and Newcastle, and top the charts for goals against ‘Big Six’ teams (100) and highest possession average (45.6%).

This is the second season where Brighton have recorded at least five wins over ‘Big Six’ sides, with six wins in 2022/23 when they finished a club-record sixth and qualified for the Europa League. Only Aston Villa have recorded five-plus league wins against those opponents in multiple seasons since 2018/19 (in 2023/24 and 2020/21).

It is an impressive trend to maintain despite managerial changes, and it must be remembered that Albion lost their first seven games against ‘Big Six’ teams in the Premier League, before drawing to Tottenham and beating United 1-0 at home to stay up in 2017/18.

There are still three fixtures against the big clubs to play this campaign: a trip to Manchester City next month, before Albion close the season out with their final home game against Liverpool, then a final-day trip to Tottenham.