Albion Analytics: Hurzeler's first seven games reviewed

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Albion Analytics takes a look at the numbers and tactics behind the German's approach with Albion.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2024-10-15T09:00+01:00

The German joined us from St Pauli in the summer. 📷 by James Boardman.

Fabian Hurzeler's team have taken 12 points from their opening seven Premier League matches.

The success of the 31-year-old, the youngest head coach in the league’s history, has been implementing a style while still getting the substance of results.

Three wins, three draws and only one defeat means Albion sit 6th in the top-tier, with a plus-three goal difference. Starting seasons well has been a pattern for Brighton — this is the fourth season in a row they are in the top-six at this stage, have taken 12-plus points in each of those campaigns, never lost more than twice and had a positive goal difference.

If you take the average opponent quality back in August, Brighton’s start was a little better (easier) than the median. However, this was a reflection of home fixtures against lesser teams, as well as meetings against ‘Big Six’ teams — Albion played Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal in their opening seven matches, facing ‘Big Six’ teams more than anyone else.

They took seven points from those four games, only losing to Chelsea (4-2, away). Hurzeler showing he can coach Albion against bigger and better teams keeps up their impressive record against them.

Since the start of 2018-19, Brighton’s 73 points (76 games: 20 wins, 13 draws, 43 losses) versus ‘Big Six’ opponents is the most by any team outside of teams in that group. In fact, it accounts for a quarter of Brighton’s total league points.

Joao Pedro celebrates his winning goal against Manchester United. 📷 by Nigel Keene.

Compared to Brighton’s three other permanent head coaches since 2017-18, Hurzeler’s first seven Premier League games are the best in terms of most points (12; De Zerbi had 8, Hughton 7 and Potter 4), most goals (13) and fewest defeats (1; Hughton, Potter and De Zerbi all lost 3).

Stylistically, Brighton’s in-possession approach under Hurzeler has been somewhere between De Zerbi and Potter with regard to possession (58%), though Albion have been more direct in their upfield speed and dominated territory well.

They rank in the top four Premier League teams for possession, and top three for shortest approach from the goalkeeper at goal-kicks and in-open play, however sit second for long pass completion rate (60.2%) — evidence that they can, and will, play over the press and break quickly.

Mats Wieffer and Carlos Baleba. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

It is out-of-possession where Hurzeler’s ideas are clearest. Brighton are averaging 4.7 high turnovers per-game under him, more than any previous head coach, a reflection of their 9.3 opposition passes allowed per defensive action, which is the most intensely coached press in Albion's Premier League history.

Meanwhile the 4.4 offsides drawn each match is over double what Albion managed under anyone else (1.5/game, under Potter, was next-best). The total number is 31 across seven games, the second-most by any team in Europe’s top-five leagues, after Barcelona (62 in 9 under Hansi Flick).

That reward is reflection of a high-risk system, ironically based around a high line. Hurzeler has conceded fewer shots per Premier League game than the previous three (permanent) head coaches but has faced more big chances (2.6) and expected goals against (1.4) per match than the others too.

Fabian Hurzeler has won three of his seven Premier League games in charge. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

After a strong start to the season with only two goals conceded in the first five games across all competitions, Albion have conceded twice in each of their last four matches.

Aside from injuries to new arrivals and key players, Hurzeler’s only real concern will be this. Albion are one of ten teams to concede ten-plus goals in the first seven games, with all the others in the bottom-half.

Hurzeler’s success in St Pauli owed to a strong defensive base of a tactical plan, although he has better individual quality at Brighton than St Pauli, so clean sheets - to the same extent - might not be as necessary.

They are harder to achieve than ever in the Premier League, as attack-focused philosophies have seen the single-season goals record broken two campaigns in a row.