Albion Analytics: Previewing the 2024/25 Premier League season

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Albion Analytics previews the 2024/25 Premier League season.

2024-08-12T06:00+01:00

Fabian Hurzeler was appointed Albion head coach following the departure of Roberto De Zerbi. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

The 2024-25 campaign marks season eight for Albion in the Premier League.

In the Amex era, (since 2011) they have been a top-flight team for longer than they were out of it.

Albion will play their 300th Premier League game this season, when they face West Ham in late April (barring fixture cancellations/rescheduling).

It means they have spent more time in the Premier League than Swansea, Birmingham, Portsmouth and Derby, and by the end of 2024-25, as long as Charlton, Wigan and Watford.

The major change for Albion this season is head coach, with Fabian Hurzeler succeeding Roberto De Zerbi. The 31-year-old is the youngest permanent head coach in Premier League history and the fourth different permanent Albion head coach.

Lewis Dunk captained Albion in their first season in European competition last season.

Chris Hughton (2-0 to Manchester City) lost his first Premier League game, Graham Potter won his (3-0 vs Watford) and Roberto De Zerbi drew his (3-3 vs Liverpool).

Hurzeler has ambitions to “challenge the establishment”, something the Albion have managed in recent seasons.

Since 2018-19, Brighton have recorded 18 wins and taken 66 points from games against ‘big six’ teams. Only Wolves (20 wins, 71 points) can better them in either of those metrics. The advantage for Hurzeler this season will not be having European football to manage, with Brighton playing 49 times last season, their most in any season since promotion in 2017.

Strong starts have been a feature of Albion’s Premier League campaigns. They have won their opening fixture in four of the last five seasons (4-1 at home to Luton Town last season; 2-1 away to Manchester United in 2022-23, a 2-1 away win against Burnley in 2021-22, 3-1 home loss to Chelsea in 2020-21, 3-0 away win at Watford in 2019-20).

Yankuba Minteh joined us from Newcastle United in July. 📷 by Ganassa.

In each of the last three seasons, Brighton have won at least four of the opening six matches and been in the top-six. In 2023-24, they won five and were briefly top after the first two games (two 4-1 wins). The fixture list makes a repeat of history entirely possible. Based on The Analyst’s assessments of the opening five matches, Brighton’s start to the season is the 11th hardest.

2023-24, despite a positive first-half of the season, was not as good for Brighton as 2022-23. They scored fewer league goals (55 vs 72), conceded more (62 vs 53), won less (12 vs 18 times), accrued fewer points (48 vs 62) and finished 11th, five places lower than 2022-23, though that also spoke to the depth and quality of mid-table teams.

Two highlights from last season are how brightly Albion’s youngsters shone — they gave 9,758 league minutes to 13 different under-21 players. In the past six seasons, only Southampton in 2022-23 (10,308) used youngsters more. Secondly, Brighton had a solid home record, which had not been the case a few seasons ago. There was a 12-game unbeaten home league run between September and March, which only Liverpool and Manchester City could beat for length, while Brighton took a Premier League-best 30 points from their 19 home Premier League matches.

Joao Pedro finished as Albion's top scorer last season with 20 goals. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

Looking at the promoted trio, there are records to improve for Albion against all three. In the Amex era, they have more losses than wins against Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester individually, even if they have been the highest-ranked south-coast side for the last three seasons.

Defence is an area Hurzeler will look to improve. For the entertainment value and big wins that De Zerbi’s all-out-attack style brought, it cost Brighton at the other end. That has been part of a Premier League trend towards attacking-focused coaches, with the overall goals record broken for the last two seasons, and absolutely obliterated in 2023-24. Regardless, Brighton only kept six clean sheets and conceded 62 goals last season, their worst defensive numbers in a Premier League season.