Albion Analytics: Where could Albion finish this season?

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Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2025-03-25T06:00+00:00

Danny Welbeck and Joao Pedro celebrate the late winner against Fulham. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

It is that time of the season again: late March, post-international break, with deep knockout rounds of the domestic and international cups looming, and league fixtures which become ‘cup finals’ every week as teams chase the highest finishing position possible.

In Fabian Hurzeler’s debut season at the club, Brighton have every chance at a club-record finish, attempting to surpass their sixth place ranking in 2022/23 when they qualified for the Europa League.

After 29 league games of 2024/25, Albion have a superior points tally (47) and league position (7th) than in six of their previous seven Premier League seasons — only in 2022/23 (49 points and 6th) were they better off at this stage.

Albion qualified for the Europa League after finishing sixth in the 2022/23 season. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

In fact, with only six defeats, it is the fewest losses that Albion have after 29 games of a Premier League campaign. The last time they were this hard to beat was the 2016/17 Championship promotion season (18 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses from the opening 29 matches).

Therefore it is little surprise that Hurzeler said “I love pressure” ahead of the final game of the international break, when Brighton took a first Premier League point away at Manchester City. It was the hardest away trip that Albion have left, in terms of opposition league ranking. All their remaining away games are versus teams in the bottom half, with Brighton unbeaten in eight trips to teams ninth or lower this term (8 matches: 5 wins and 3 draws).

That said, Hurzeler’s side do not have the most favourable run-in. As per The Analyst, their final ten games are the sixth hardest of any team (that included the trip to Manchester City). Last season, they had the most-difficult run-in and only won one of their final nine games (3 wins and 5 defeats), the fewest points (6) Brighton have taken from the final ten matches of a season since their first two Premier League campaigns (6 in 2017/18; 5 in 2018/19).

There is reason to be optimistic though. Albion’s toughest opponents (Liverpool, Newcastle and Aston Villa) all must visit the Amex. Brighton have taken 24 home points this term, already more than in four Premier League seasons, and, with five matches remaining at the Amex, they have a real possibility of making it a third campaign running where they earn 30+ points at home (30 in 2023/24; 34 in 2022/23). Seven away points are needed to better the club-record for most away points in a Premier League season (29, in 2021/22).

Notably, Albion’s best two Premier League finishes — for points and league position — came when they finished 2021/22 and 2022/23 strongly. Those seasons, they took 18 and 13 points respectively (there was also 12 points from the final ten matches of 2019/20 but this involved behind-closed-doors matches in a disrupted pandemic season). The run-in of 2021/22 was so good (5 wins, 3 draws and only 1 defeat) that they jumped from 13th ahead of matchday 29 to ninth on the final day.

Every point will matter extra this season too. Part of the drop-off from ‘Big Six’ sides (barring league-leaders Liverpool) is how congested the competition has subsequently become. A five-point gap between fourth and tenth is the narrowest after 29 gameweeks since 1992/93 — when the Premier League was a 22-team league.

Fabian Hurzeler will be aiming to guide Albion into Europe for a second campaign in the club's history. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

Success this season will be particularly relative, but it should be remembered that Brighton are on-pace for a top-seven finish. If they sustain their current rate, they will end the season with at least 61 points (as roughly 16 wins, 14 draws and only 8 losses), outscoring opponents 63-55. This will owe to more marginal wins than previous campaigns, but in eight of the last ten Premier League seasons, 61 points was enough for seventh place or higher (8th in 2020/21 and 2015/16; 6th in 2021/22 and 2019/20).

The Analyst predicts that is almost exactly how they will finish, with the underlying numbers projecting Brighton coming 7th on 60 points, sandwiched between 6th-place Chelsea (63pts) and Aston Villa just beneath them (58pts).

Brighton look to be peaking just at the right moment in the season, and should they maintain this in the business end of the campaign, club records are bound to tumble and Hurzeler could lift them to heights they first reached two years ago.