Albion Analytics: Breaking down the win over Manchester United

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Here's the numbers behind our terrific first home win of the campaign.

2024-08-26T06:00+01:00

Joao Pedro snatched all three points for Albion with a last gasp goal at the Amex. 📷 by Nigel Keene.

Brighton were at it again against Manchester United.

Joao Pedro’s 95th-minute winner, the third-latest match-winning goal for Brighton in Premier League history, ensured they made it six points from the first two games of the season.

That the game did not end level was, as per the history books, no surprise. In 15 meetings in the Premier League between Brighton and Manchester United, United edge it eight wins to seven, with this fixture the second-most played in competition history without a single draw — behind United against Wigan (16).

Joao Pedro got his first goal of the season with his header against United. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

However, recent meetings have been, with the exception of the final day last season, all Albion. The last six games have seen five Brighton wins and they have outscored United 12-5. For comparison, the first nine Premier League matches between the sides saw only two wins and seven Brighton defeats, with United ahead on the aggregate score 18-9.

It makes United the team that Brighton have beaten the most times in the Premier League (7), while only against West Ham (25) and Newcastle (22) have they earned more points (21 versus Manchester United). In fact, only Manchester City (8) have beaten their city rivals more times in the Premier League since Albion’s debut campaign in 2017/18.

This means that for the third season out of four, Brighton have won their opening two games, only failing to do so in 2022-23, when they won away to United on the opening day then drew 0-0 at home to Newcastle.

It was important for Brighton to start their home campaign with a win considering how 2023-24 ended at the Amex: only one win (1-0 vs Aston Villa) in the final five games, including three defeats by two-plus goals.

Last season was still their best in the Premier League for home points won, but owed to a particularly strong start to the season, with form tailing off after a condensed first four months due to Europa League.

Scenes. 📷 by Simon Roe.

Albion’s late show against United was not a particular surprise, either. Since the start of 2018-19 season, they have scored 48 Premier League goals from the 76th-minute onwards, with only Liverpool (63) and Manchester City (55) netting more in the late stages. Arsenal (17) and Brentford (16) are the two teams with more 90+ minute goals than Brighton in the same period.

In opening the scoring, Danny Welbeck notched his 100th Premier League goal and his 25th in the competition for Brighton, only one away from Neal Maupay and Glenn Murray who sit joint-second on the club’s all-time charts.

It was Welbeck’s fifth league goal against Manchester United, the most by any former player for the club, and it makes United his second-favourite opposition besides West Ham (6 goals).

'Emotional, not euphoric', was Fabian Hurzeler's reaction to the win over United. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

Fabian Hurzeler was full of praise for Welbeck’s achievement afterwards, but refused to feel euphoria around the result. He felt, second-half especially, that there was room to improve without the ball and in controlling the game.

The first-half had eight shots combined, with over twice as many (17) after half-time, pointing to just how end-to-end the game became.

Part of this was the high line that Albion deployed, trying to condense the pitch and force United to play long. They caught Erik ten Hag’s side offside six times, following on from seven offsides drawn against Everton on matchday one — both are better than what Brighton managed in any Premier League game last season.

It is early days in the Hurzeler era, with tactics and system to be refined, but it has nevertheless been a convincing start. Next up is an especially tough acid test away to Arsenal, but a ground where Brighton have as many Premier League wins as defeats (3).