Albion Analytics: Crunching the numbers behind the win over City

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Albion set some new Premier League records in Saturday's victory.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2024-11-12T09:00+00:00

Joao Pedro and Brajan Gruda jump on Matt O'Riley after the Denmark international put Albion in front. 📷 by James Boardman.

Albion continued their impressive home start to the Premier League season with a 2-1 comeback win over Manchester City.

It makes it six games at the Amex without defeat, three wins (over Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and now City) and three draws. The last time Brighton were unbeaten at home for this long at the start of a league season was 1982-83 (seven games).

The significance of Brighton’s win was not just what it meant for City — that they have lost four consecutive games for the first time under Pep Guardiola — but that they did it from a losing position.

Dan Burn scored the winner in our 3-2 victory over City in May 2021. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

City were 1-0 up at half-time thanks to Erling Haaland’s goal after a City midfield third regain and counter-attack, but Brighton’s second-half turnaround, with two goals in five minutes, makes them the first team to beat City in a league game after being behind at half-time… since Brighton themselves, at the Amex, in May 2021.

The result also means that Haaland, after 46 matches (40 wins, six draws) has lost a Premier League game in which he had scored, ending the fourth-longest streak in the competition. A second defeat for Guardiola at the Amex means Anfield (4), the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (4) and Stamford Bridge (3) are the only Premier League grounds where he has lost more.

It was another example of Brighton’s big-game adaptability under Fabian Hurzeler, who "wouldn't say it's the biggest win of my career – but it's an important one". Brighton’s 40 per cent possession in the win makes it four out of five victorious league matches under Hurzeler with a minority share of possession. They last had more in 2020-21 (6), and it makes it eight of Brighton’s 19 points which have been won from losing positions this season.

Erling Haaland on the floor after a tussle with Igor Julio. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

However it was a case of quantity over quality for Brighton with possession, who registered ten shots, but eight big chances. That is the most big chances City have faced in a Premier League game since the start of 2018-19, and Brighton’s most in a match in the competition too (bettering the seven they managed at home Tottenham Hotspur in the 4-2 win in December 2023).

In fact, there have only been three instances in the Premier League this season of a team with more big chances in a single game (West Ham versus Ipswich; Tottenham against Manchester United; Arsenal versus Leicester — all 9).

Albion’s excellent attacking numbers owed to second-half subs and tactical tweaks, dropping a midfielder between the centre-backs during build-up and trying to play penetrative passes through midfield and into striker Danny Welbeck. Likewise, there were plenty of switches to winger Kaoru Mitoma, who received the joint-most progressive passes of any player on the pitch (9).

Joao Pedro celebrates making it 1-1 with City. 📷 by Paul Hazlewood.

It was notable that Brighton hardly dribbled (only 7 attempts, their fewest in a game this season) but were keen to try and play in-behind the high City line — only twice this league season have Albion completed a higher share of their long passes than the 62% (31/50) against City.

Having been outshot 9-3 in the first-half (and down 4-2 for big chances in the opening 45 minutes), there was a big turnaround, with Brighton outshooting City seven-six after the break and creating six big chances while only conceding one themselves.

Joao Pedro and Matt O’Riley certainly impacted from the bench, netting the two goals. Jhon Duran (8) is the only Premier League player with more goals than Pedro (5) as a sub since the start of last season, while for O’Riley, he is the first player to score against City on Debut since Steven Bergwijn (for Tottenham) in February 2020.

Joao Pedro reacted fastest to the loose ball in the box to fire home. 📷 by James Boardman.

O’Riley is Albion’s 11th different league scorer this season, the widest spread in the league (Tottenham are next on 9). That variety is emblematic of the third-youngest team in the competition this campaign, who have made the second-best start to a Premier League season in club history.

Only in 2022-23 did they better 19 points and 4th place after 11 games, also sitting fourth then but on 20 points, a season in which Albion would go on to set club records for league finish, points won and goals scored. A good omen.