Albion Analytics: Who should you pick for FPL?

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The Premier League season starts next week.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-08-04T06:00:00Z

Albion prepared for the upcoming season with a trip to the USA.

As the new season approaches, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) teams are being drafted at pace.

Albion will compete in four competitions this season — Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, Europa League — so deciding which Albion players should make your squad needs careful consideration.

Analysing the data, considering the tactics and based on the Premier League’s FPL methods of scoring, here are the Albion Analytics recommendations for this season.

The reliable option: Pascal Gross

Gross played the most league minutes (3,239) of any Albion player last season and recorded the most goal involvements too (17 — 9 goals, 8 assists), impressively bettering his 2017-18 debut campaign (15 — 7 goals, 8 assists) for a season's best at the club. It means that three of his six seasons on the south coast have seen him register double-digit goal involvements — for midfielders, goals are worth five points, assists three points.

Last season, Gross registered 159 FPL points, comfortably the most of any Brighton player (Solly March second with 147) and 15th overall in the league, while he ranked third among teammates for bonus points earned (14).

His availability, triple-threat of goalscoring, open-play and set-piece creativity (plus 2022-23 penalty-taker Alexis Mac Allister has left the club) means he will have the ability and opportunity to rack up points next season, either as a central midfielder, number 10 or even right-back.

At £6.5m, Gross is Brighton’s joint-most expensive player (with March and Kaoru Mitoma), but that cost does not appear to be much of a gamble.

The one for the start: Kaoru Mitoma

Brighton’s Japan international was one of the revelations of the season. He started the season in fewer than 3,000 FPL teams but ended it in over 3 million. Like Gross, Mitoma will cost (also £6.5m) but his direct attacking style racked up the goals (7) and assists (9 based on FPL’s criteria).

Also, in FPL, penalties won count as assists (three points). Mitoma’s 31 one-v-ones in the penalty area were the joint-second most in the entire Premier League last season (with Marcus Rashford).

The value for money: Pervis Estupinan

Estupinan is the most popular Brighton player at the time of writing — the Ecuador international is in over 51% of squads, and for good reason. He was Brighton’s top-scoring defender (128 points) and ranked inside the top ten defenders in the league. His 15 bonus points were second only to Solly March, among teammates.

The left-back started 31 of Brighton’s 38 league games in his debut season, and is set to be a key player as De Zerbi continues the 4-2-3-1 where he and Mitoma have such an effective partnership.

He played at least 60 minutes (the threshold) in nine different games which ended with Brighton keeping a clean sheet, worth four points apiece. Estupinan is the perfect FPL defender in that he produces points with quality performances at both ends of the pitch.

His 19 successful crosses into the opposition penalty area were the most of any Brighton player last season, meanwhile he ranked second for tackles plus interceptions (98). Five assists and 51 key passes (producing chances worth 5.4xG) not only ranked inside the top four Albion players but also indicate consistency and stability to his game. And that was in his first season in the Premier League.

At £5m, Estupinan is not particularly expensive, especially compared to the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8m), Kieran Trippier and Andy Robertson (both £6.5m).

The Wildcard: Julio Enciso

There are a selection of affordable, young Brighton strikers, any of whom offer an excellent gamble for those wanting to limit spending in the forward department but maintain a goal threat.

Evan Ferguson (£6m), Joao Pedro and Julio Enciso (each £5.5m) all offer different strengths, but the latter should not be overlooked, particularly given his scoring record against top-quality opposition.

Only seven of Enciso’s 20 league appearances last season were starts and he completed just one full 90 (worth two points), but adjusting for minutes played, his numbers were through the roof.

4.2 shots per 90 with a 47% shot accuracy; 5 shot-creating actions per 90; 3.4 successful dribbles per 90 from 7 attempts (49.2% success rate). All of those numbers were the best of any Brighton player, and three of his four goals were scored against Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea — the latter two were game-winners and the goal against City won Premier League goal of the season.

Only Deniz Undav (0.72) and Ferguson (0.76) had better goals plus assists per 90 than Enciso (0.67) among Brighton players last season. Hypothetically, if Enciso were to play 15 full 90s and score/assist at the same rate, he would register 10 goal involvements. That means points.