Albion Analytics: The ultimate season preview

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Albion Analytics takes a look at what Albion fans can look forward to this coming campaign.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-08-09T06:00:00Z

James Milner will be hoping to use his European experience to help his new team this coming season.

The 2022/23 season was Albion's best ever.

They set club records for Premier League finish (6th), points (62), goals scored (72) and wins (18). Albion did doubles (home and away wins) over six different teams and beat ‘big-six’ sides eight times in 15 meetings, losing just four of those games, outscoring those opponents 28-19 and having a majority share of possession on ten occasions.

Brighton’s ability to mix style with substance reflects in the stats. They had 593 open-play sequences of 10+ passes, a 30% increase on 2021-22 (455) and the third-most in the entire league. 140 of those ended with a shot or touch in the opposition box, also the third-most and 75% more than the previous season (80). Not only did they have a higher volume of long passing sequences, but a greater proportion (23.6% compared to 17.6% in 2021-22) ended with a shot or touch in the opposition box.

In fact, as per Understat’s data, they were one of just three teams along with Bournemouth and (relegated) Southampton to finish the season with lower numbers for actual goals scored and higher numbers for actual goals conceded than their expected numbers — a south-coast trend which suggests their underlying performances, in terms of chance creation/concession, were even better than their results.

Southampton (7,687) were the only Premier League team to give more minutes to under-21s last season than Brighton (4,875, the tenth-most in Europe’s top-five leagues).

Historically, Brighton have started seasons well. They have won their opening Premier League fixture in three of the last four seasons (last season 2-1 away to Manchester United, also a 2-1 away win against Burnley in 2021-22, 3-1 home loss to Chelsea in 2020-21, 3-0 away win over Watford in 2019-20). In each of the last two seasons, Brighton have won four of their opening six, accumulating 13 points, and sat inside the top-six.

Based on the finish position of each team last campaign — and assigning 18th, 19th and 20th to the Championship winners, runners-up and play-off winners — Brighton have the joint-sixth ‘easiest’ start in the league, facing just two of last season's top six (Newcastle and Manchester United) in their opening five games.

Looking at the promoted trio, Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, Brighton could avenge some demons. In the Amex era they have won as many meetings as they have lost against Burnley (5), drawing eight times - while they won 2-1 at Turf Moor in 2019/20 and 2020/21, they have failed to beat them at the Amex in the Premier League. Brighton have not played Luton in the league since 2008, in League One, and have not won any of the four Premier League games against Sheffield United (D2, L2).

If there is one area the Seagulls can improve next season, it's at set pieces. Only Manchester United’s five set-piece goals were fewer than Brighton’s six in the Premier League last season, through De Zerbi’s side ranked tenth for shots (133) and seventh for xG (13.9) from these situations, indicating that they missed good opportunities and/or faced quality goalkeeping rather than an absence of chance creation, meanwhile they had a top five defence for set pieces shots and xG conceded.

It promises to be a season like no other for Brighton.