Albion Analytics: Joao Pedro's fine start with Albion

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The forward has scored ten goals for us so far this campaign.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-12-09T06:00:00Z

Joao Pedro has scored five Premier League goals so far this campaign.

Joao Pedro has made an impressive start to his Albion career.

Expectations were understandably high of a 21-year-old who joined for a club-record fee from Watford. He arrived with just 31 Premier League appearances, 15 starts and fewer than 1,700 top-flight minutes, part of a Watford side who were relegated in 2022-23.

The Brazilian had been club top-scorer and league-top dribbler in the Championship last season, but by his own admission, Watford were “more long ball and counter-attack. Here (at Brighton), we think more about playing with the ball and moving at the right time.”

The headline is that Joao Pedro took just 20 appearances and 1,124 minutes to hit ten goals in all competitions this season, the fastest any Brighton player has reached double digits in a season since promotion in 2017; that usurps Glenn Murray, who reached 10 in 25 appearances (1,534 mins) in 2018-19 and 26 appearances (1,438 mins) the season before that.

Neal Maupay took 38 appearances (2,695 mins) in all competitions to score his tenth goal in 2019-20, then no Brighton player managed the feat for two years, until four players did so last season: Evan Ferguson in 23 appearances (1,217 mins); Kaoru Mitoma in 28 appearances (1,836); Alexis Mac Allister in 29 appearances (2,299 mins) and Pascal Gross in 42 appearances (3,671).

If Joao Pedro continues his current per 90 rate of scoring (0.76 — one goal every 119 minutes) across a 3,000 minute season, entirely achievable with Albion’s European success, then he would come close to a 25-goal campaign.

Ranked against Brighton players in all competitions this season, Joao Pedro has the most goals (10), shots (35, excluding penalties), but also ranks third for shot-creating actions (48) and dribbles (59 attempted, with seven leading to shots), evidence that he is able to operate not just as a goalscoring no.9 but also provide a creative spark when he drops deeper or rotates wide.

For all those metrics, barring dribbles, he ranks inside the top quarter of Premier League attacking midfielders/wingers this season, inside the top 10% for — per 90 — touches in the opposition box, clearances and aerial duels won, showcasing his ability to have an impact at both ends of the pitch.

Only Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min (26.5%) can boast a better conversion rate than Joao Pedro, among players at Premier League clubs in all competitions with 25 or more shots this season — the Brazil international, who made his senior debut in the last international break, has converted 24.4%, and is the joint top-scorer in the Europa League (5, with Marseille’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and West Ham’s Tomas Soucek).

“He can play number ten and in that situation he can be smarter so he can find the right position to receive the ball between the lines,” said Albion head coach Roberto De Zerbi earlier this season. “When he plays like a striker, he has to be smarter to attack the space, but my work is to improve the players."

Part of Joao Pedro’s goalscoring armory has been penalties, and while they present high-quality chances to score, generally they are excluded from data analysis (non-penalty goals) because they are seen as unearned by players. But Joao Pedro has earned them, winning five of the six penalties he has scored in all competitions this season — the most of any player at a Premier League club — including Brighton’s first ever European goal, at home to AEK Athens.

Across his career, he has a perfect penalty record, scoring all nine penalties, with six for Brighton and four of those coming in the Europa League this season; that includes crucial away penalties in Marseille, to snatch Brighton a late point, and the match-winner in Athens against AEK. Joao Pedro is only the third player to score four penalties (shootouts excluded) for an English club in a major European season, after John Wark for Ipswich Town in 1980-81 and Bruno Fernandes for Manchester United in 2020-21.

“Joao Pedro can play better and better,” De Zerbi said. “He can play better with his teammates, he can play better in our style, he can improve to become a complete player. He has incredible potential.”

That potential is being fulfilled.