Albion Analytics: How do Albion compare to Manchester City?

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A closer look at the way the two teams play ahead of Saturday's meeting at the Etihad.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-10-20T09:45:00Z

Jan Paul had a fantastic battle with Manchester City striker Erling Haaland in our match at The Amex in May.

Albion travel to the Etihad on matchday nine of the Premier League, making it the perfect time to chart the Albion’s rise into the Manchester City-style possession outfit.

Since De Zerbi’s arrival, in September 2022, only Manchester City (63.8%) have averaged more possession than Albion (61.6%). In the same time period, City’s passing sequences have lasted 14.7 seconds and five passes on average, the highest in the league, closely followed by Brighton’s average sequence of 11.5 seconds and 4.3 passes.

In terms of translating this to end product, Brighton’s 86 shot-ending (7 goals) sequences of nine-plus passes are second to only City, who have 105 such sequences (11 goals).

Fittingly, Brighton recorded 52.2% possession in the 3-1 Etihad defeat last October, in only De Zerbi’s fifth game. Only Bayern Munich (55.8%) had a larger share of possession away to Manchester City in all competitions last season, and the Seagulls having the majority share ended a 25-game home Premier League streak of City recording over 50% of the ball. In fact, it was the most possession by a visiting Premier League team since Chelsea in May 2021, 71 home league games ago.

This season, 53 of Albion’s 55 goal-kicks have ended in their own penalty area, a proportion of 96% and with an average goal-kick distance of 8.1 metres. That is the highest rate of playing short in the league, and the average shortest pass, with City comparatively at 36% and 39.2 metres.

“I think Roberto is one of the most influential managers in the last 20 years,” Guardiola said in May this year after Brighton and City drew at the Amex, a game where Brighton produced 20 shots — only Wolves’ 21 against City in 2019 have been more against them in a Guardiola-era league game. The City boss added that “there is no team playing the way they play. I had the feeling he (De Zerbi) would have an impact and it would be great, but I didn’t expect them to do it in this short space of time. It’s so nice to watch.”

In the De Zerbi era, only Arsenal (90) have scored more Premier League goals than City (88) and Albion (82). This season, Albion and City are joint-top for goal-ending sequences of nine-plus passes, with five apiece, and the average Albion and City goals are scored from the longest average sequences in the league — 22.6 and 22.4 seconds respectively.

In terms of points per game, City have been Brighton’s toughest Premier League opponent (0.33), and excluding the five teams Albion are yet to beat in the competition (Fulham, Sheffield United, Cardiff City, Nottingham Forest and Stoke City), Albion's win rate is lower against City than any other side (8.3%).

This will be Albion's 14th attempt at winning an away league game against City, though City have lost consecutive league matches for the first time since December 2018 and have not lost three in a row since early 2016 — the Seagulls have not lost consecutive league games since October 2022, the least recently of any team in the league.

The Amex draw in May, and their final day away defeat at Brentford, were the only occasions City dropped points in their final 14 Premier League games of the season. Similarly, Albion's 3-2 Amex victory over City in May 2021, with all three goals coming in the second-half, from 2-0 down, was one of just two away league defeats City had that season (City also lost to Tottenham on the road).

In fact, using Albion’s meetings against City as markers make perfect comparison points to chart the Albion's development.

ClubElo rankings, a “method to measure relative strength levels, the higher the better” can chart team quality over time — teams exchange them when they play each other and ratings and rankings are impacted by results, not underlying performance ratings.

City were Albion’s first-ever Premier League opponents, at the Amex in August 2017. That day, Brighton were ranked outside the top 100 teams in Europe, with City tenth on the continent. Albion had just 23% possession, their lowest to date at home in a Premier League game, and made over five times as many clearances as City (43 v 8).

In August 2019, Graham Potter’s first game against City, in August 2019, Albion were ranked 83rd and there were 417 ClubElo points between the clubs.

Going into Saturday’s game, the two sides have never been closer. Brighton rank 18th in Europe (1,820 ClubElo points) and just 246 points behind City — using the points, Albion have got 69% closer to City than four years ago, a monumental feat given City’s domestic and continental dominance, as well as their evolution.