Albion Analytics: How Albion dismantled Palace

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The numbers behind our victory over the Eagles.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2024-02-06T09:45:00Z

Academy graduates Lewis Dunk and Jack Hinshelwood both scored against Palace on Saturday.

Albion have made breaking records a habit under Roberto De Zerbi, but the 4-1 win against Crystal Palace was Albion’s biggest derby victory since 1956 — that record means a little bit more.

De Zerbi said pre-match that Palace was “the best game for us in this moment,” the biggest of tests to bounce back from a 4-0 midweek defeat away to Luton. He was right.

His team scored three first-half goals for the first time since April (at home to Wolves), taking just eight shots and finishing both big chances. Albion cashed in all their chips at once it seemed, having taken 42 shots without scoring in their first three league games of 2024. Excluding the final day defeat to Aston Villa last season, Brighton have lost 16 times under De Zerbi in the Premier League and won their next league game 11 times, an immense display of bounce back-ability.

They started incredibly fast, with Lewis Dunk heading home Pascal Gross’s in-swinging corner after just two minutes and 22 seconds. That was Brighton’s second fastest goal under De Zerbi (after Alexis Mac Allister against Aston Villa in November 2022), and the seventh time that Gross has assisted Dunk, with all being headed finishes.

Dunk and Gross were the only players aged over 30 in Brighton’s starting XI, which featured three academy graduates (Dunk, Evan Ferguson, Jack Hinshelwood). The starting XI had an average age of 23.8, Brighton’s youngest in Premier League history and the fifth youngest in any Premier League game this season — only Burnley and Chelsea have named younger. Teenagers Hinshelwood and Facundo Buonnanotte scored Albion’s second and third goals, making it 11 league goals by Brighton teenagers this season. Combined, the rest of the Premier League have 15.

De Zerbi has made the Amex an incredibly tough place to come, with just two defeats there all season in all competitions (both in August, to West Ham and AEK Athens). Brighton are nine home league games unbeaten, the longest in club top-flight history and the best Amex run since 14 unbeaten between September 2016 and February 2017.

Importantly, Brighton extended their strong record in derbies. Since promotion in 2017, Brighton have won five derbies, lost three and drawn seven. Only against Manchester United, West Ham and Arsenal (six) have they won more games. Palace have not won any of the last six derbies, though this was the first time since March 2019 that Brighton scored more than once. Having won this fixture last season, it is the first time since the 1980s that Albion have recorded back-to-back home derby wins.

They did it in some style, too. Their 38 open-play sequences of 10+ passes, and 93.9% pass accuracy, were Brighton’s highest totals in Premier League games this season. As was their 60.2% duel success, showing a team with defensive bite as well as attacking style, and a cutting edge by scoring all three big chances — the fourth time in the league this season they have scored 100% of big chances in a game.

Perhaps an underrated element of the win was how different Brighton’s goals were. The first, a header from a corner, was just their fifth set-piece goal (excluding penalties) of the league season. Hinshelwood’s header from a looping Tariq Lamptey cross doubled the lead, the tenth headed Brighton goal in the Premier League this season (only Arsenal, 11, have more), and was remarkably similar to his winner against Brentford.

Albion’s third, just 89 seconds after Hinshelwood made it 2-0, came about after intense pressing from the Palace kick-off. Only Bournemouth (7) have more than their 6 high turnover goals this season, which are open-play sequences starting within 40m of the opposition goal. Joao Pedro applied gloss to give a third 4-1 win of the season, culminating in a 1-2 with Danny Welbeck, but was a back-to-front passing move.

Derbies are for winning, not playing, so the saying goes. Brighton did both.