Albion Analytics: De Zerbi's men stun the Gunners

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The numbers behind our terrific 3-0 win.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-05-15T15:11:00Z

Deniz Undav lobbed Aaron Ramsdale to make it 2-0 at the Emirates.

The Albion are making quite the habit of big, late-season results at the Emirates.

Sunday’s 3-0 win can be added to a collection: a 1-1 draw in the penultimate game of the 2018/19 season, a 2-1 win in 2019/20 and a victory by the same scoreline last season in April.

In addition to the 3-1 Carabao Cup win at Arsenal earlier this season, where Brighton recovered from 1-0 down, Albion become just the fifth side to win twice away to Arsenal in the same season and just the third team since the turn of the millennium (after Manchester City in 2020-21 and Liverpool in 2021-22).

In fact, Brighton have only earned more points and won more Premier League games against West Ham (24 and 6) than against Arsenal (5 and 18). Three of those wins against Arsenal have been away from home, in six meetings, with Brighton the only team to have won as many as 50% of their trips to the Emirates.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side were only the second Premier League team to win at the Emirates this season (after Manchester City) and only the third team to keep a clean sheet against Mikel Arteta’s side (after Newcastle and Everton). It was Arsenal’s biggest home league defeat in over two years, since Liverpool won 3-0 there in April 2021.

The three goals take Brighton’s total to 71 goals scored in 35 games in all competitions under De Zerbi — 55 in 28 Premier League games, only marginally below an expected goals figure of 57.74, showing that the Seagulls are finishing at a sustainable, proportionate rate to the chances they are creating and can be reasonably expected to keep this scoring up in the long-term.

Take your pick of the underlying statistics that highlight Brighton’s attacking prowess since De Zerbi’s first game in October: joint-third of all Premier League teams for goals (with Newcastle) and touches in the opposition box (915), outright third for big chances (90); second for average possession (62.8%) and expected goals, and the most chance-creating carries (dribbles ending with a shot or key pass, 45).

Julio Enciso’s opener was the eighth Premier League goal scored by a Brighton teenager this season, accounting for almost half the goals scored by teenagers in the entire league (17). The Paraguayan was involved in five of Brighton’s 12 shot-ending sequences against Arsenal, the most of any Albion player, also having the most touches in the final third and Arsenal box (19 and 6), with his nine attempted dribbles the most of any player on the pitch.

Pre-game, American data company FiveThirtyEight gave Brighton an 86% chance of a top seven finish, predicting a 6th-placed finish (47%). The win goes a long way to cement Albion’s position, now given a 74% chance of finishing 6th, projected as finishing on 64 points.