Albion Analytics: Another win against Manchester United

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Our 3-1 win marked our fourth consecutive victory against the Red Devils.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-09-19T09:31:00Z

Danny Welbeck and Pascal Gross run over the to the terrific away support to celebrate the German's goal against United - his seventh against them since 2017.

Before last season, Albion had never won at Old Trafford. Saturday’s victory made it back-to-back wins at the ground to end Roberto De Zerbi’s first year as head coach in fantastic and encapsulating fashion.

It marked Albion’s eighth victory in 15 games in all competitions against ‘Big Six’ sides (Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham) under the Italian, of which they have only lost four games and outscored those opponents 29-19.

More pertinently, it ended United’s 31 home game unbeaten streak in all competitions, last losing to Real Sociedad in the Europa League group stages in September 2022. In the Premier League, though, Erik ten Hag’s only home losses have been at home to Brighton.

Albion are only the third team to win four consecutive Premier League games against United, after Liverpool (December 2000 – January 2002) and City (April 2013 – November 2014).

It was a game in which the squad showcased its strength in depth, with six changes made to the starting XI that beat Newcastle prior to the international break. They stood strong against United’s intense early pressure and counter-pressing, with De Zerbi accepting afterwards that they “suffered a lot.”

13 first-half tackles from the away side at Old Trafford were the second-most in any game under De Zerbi (14 away to Brentford last season) and they blocked five of United’s shots — they have never blocked more in a first-half under the Italian.

Danny Welbeck opened the scoring against his former club — his fourth against United, the most of any player to previously play for the club — by capping an 18-pass move which started in Brighton’s defensive third, saw them beat United’s press down the right, and Simon Adingra delivered a low cross for a one-touch finish.

After just five games, Welbeck becomes Brighton’s eighth different goalscorer and Adingra the seventh different assister.

A comparison of the match stats between United and Brighton showcase the dominance of performance, not just a winning result. Albion dominated possession (56.1%) and while they lost the total shot count 14-10, they had twice as many shots on target as United (8 versus 4) and created three big chances while only conceding one.

Brighton had five through balls, their joint-most in a Premier League game under De Zerbi — all five played by a different player, such is the attacking variety — and United did not have any.

In fact, it is the fifth-highest possession by an away team at Old Trafford in a Premier League game in the Ten Hag era — only Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Arsenal have had more of the ball. But since the start of last season, no away team has bettered Brighton’s big chances or through balls away to United, and no Premier League team since 2018/19 have had more shots on target.

This game was just the fourth home match under Ten Hag where United have attempted more than 30 dribbles — more significant given their relatively low possession — a sign of limited attacking output which they tried to resolve through ball carries. Of Brighton’s starting XI, only Lewis Dunk did not attempt a tackle.

It is only the second-time in Premier League history that Albion have won four of their first five games, also achieving the feat in 2021/22 but this campaign they have scored more than twice as many goals (15 versus 7) and currently top the league charts for goals (15), shots on target (44) and shot accuracy (47.3%).

Perhaps the least surprising moment of the game was Pascal Gross scoring — one-quarter (7/28) of his Premier League goals have come against United, with this his fourth match-winner against them.

“We are working…to not lose our characteristics, our quality, to score more goals. Today we scored three goals, but we had many chances to score again,” said De Zerbi. That makes it 19 wins in 32 games this calendar year in all competitions.

“It’s like a dream, no?” the Albion head coach said afterwards. It is very much a reality.